So the task at hand for the JackJumpers is a monumental one. After two straight losses to the Kings, head back to Sydney to keep the grand final series alive in front of arguably their biggest crowd in their history.
Yes the task is difficult but not impossible. Looking at the opening two matches of the series so far, we look at the key elements that will help Tasmania win in Sydney tonight.
Points in the paint
Not a stat we will likely win against a much taller opponent, but it all about limiting shots attempted close to the rim. Across the grand final series, on average Sydney have outscored Tasmania 44-21 in the paint.
A big part of that in game two was Jerrell Martin, who was a focus of the offence with Jaylene Adams out injured. Martin was a tough matchup for the JackJumpers, especially with Bairstow rested for the game with an ankle injury, and Martin went 7 from 8 from inside the key.
If Adams does not play tonight, expect the Kings to again look to Martin in the post. But Bairstow, one of Tasmania better defensive bigs is returning from injury. He will join Mikyle Mcintosh and Fabian Krslovich in keeping Martin off the scoreboard.
Offensive rebounds
Sydney slightly outmatched the JackJumpers in the rebounding count through the series averaging 40-36 per contest. But Tasmania is winning the offensive boards averaging 11.5 to 6.
Lacking the offensive weapons of the kings, its those second chance opportunities that will allow them to keep pace with Sydney.
Slowing down the kings
Sydney plays best when they play fast and look to push the ball at every opportunity, which leads to a lot of fast break layups against a defense that is not set. This is complete contrast to the JackJumpers structured, grinding, use all 24 seconds offence. They will never stop Sydney’s run and gun style but the best Tasmania can do is slow them down.
It will require some of the Tassie guards to stay with a player once a shot goes up rather than focus on the rebound. It goes against their style and the importance of offensive rebounds (that we just mentioned above), but they need to trust that the Tassie bigs will be able to crash the boards and get in the faces of the Sydney big’s when they look for the quick outlet pass down court.
Bigger spread of points
After a career best 36 points in game two that almost saw the JJ’s sneak home for the win, Josh Adams will be the focal point of the offence.
But as has been the case in the playoffs and the regular season, Adams offensive production can be up and down. None more evident that his 13 points in game one on 4-18 shooting. The Kings will look to defend him hard, give him no easy shots and try to shut him down early.
Adams was able to get going in game two by driving at the rim, drawing fouls, and knocking down points from the line. This will be then plan again tonight, but with Adams being the focus for the Kings, it allows other JackJumpers to step up offensively. Guys like Josh Magette, Jack McVeigh and MiKyle McIntosh will have a little bit of pressure off them individually, and need to take advantage offensively.
More productive last quarters
In both games so far the Kings have outscored Tasmania in final quarters (24-20 Game 1, 22-16 Game 2). In game one Sydney were already up double figures and could of taken their foot off the pedal. Tassie made a late run and brought the lead back to 8 points, but Sydney were able to fight back, win the quarter and eventually win by 17.
Then in game two Sydney were able to find easy scoring options in the final minutes of the last quarter while getting a number of stops defensively. A lot of these stops came Sydney defenders playing tight and clogging up the key, Tasmania were settling for three pointers early in the shot clock and not looking to go inside. This led to a small but game changing 6-0 run for the Kings over three minutes in the closing stages of the game.
NBL Road warriors
In what has been a strange NBL season, all top 6 NBL teams had better records on the road than at home. Tasmania will be hoping to continue that trend with a win tonight in Sydney. After struggling through the early parts of the season, the JJ’s excelled at the end of the regular season by winning their last six straight on the road leading into finals.
For the Kings, they have a slightly better away record (10-4) than home record (9-5). Despite a huge surge in the 2nd half of the season, the kings dropped their final two regular season home games to Adelaide and Illawarra.
